LONG ISLAND'S CHANGING POPULATION
Why is this important?
The level of population growth is a fundamental benchmark of how attractive Long Island is as a place to live. New residents require more housing and services, but can also add to the vibrancy of growing communities, increase sales for local businesses and provide additional tax revenues. Increasing diversity can provide a cultural richness that many people value, but can also add to social tensions. In addition, some economists have found that workforce diversity leads to a stronger regional economy.
How are we doing?
After fluctuating around 2.75 million people since 2000, Long Island’s population increased by 41,000 between 2005 and 2006. Both Nassau and Suffolk added residents, although Nassau’s population is still less than it was in 2000. All of this population increase appears to have come from natural increases and immigration from overseas. In fact, people continued to leave Long Island for other parts of the United States at an even faster pace.
The demographic changes that have been slowly changing the face of Long Island over the last two decades continued. The proportion of minorities on Long Island is steadily growing, and blacks, Hispanics and Asians currently make up 28% of the population, a new high for the Island. The percentage of people over age 55 is growing significantly, while all other age groups are shrinking, particularly the population between 20 and 34 years old.
| |||
|
Population Change
With Suffolk adding 25,000 residents in 2006 and Nassau adding 16,000, the population on Long Island reached 2,795,000. Over the six years since 2000, Suffolk’s population has grown by 3.5% while Nassau’s has shrunk by 0.7%.
Compared with the rest of the tri-state metropolitan region, Long Island is lagging behind in population growth. While Long Island grew by 1.5% between 2000 and 2006, New York City grew by 2.6%. A strong economy and a surge in housing construction in both Manhattan and the outer boroughs led to the city’s growth. However, the other suburban areas of the region also grew faster than Long Island. The suburbs north of New York City expanded by 4.4%, nearly 3 times the rate of Long Island. Northern New Jersey and Southwestern Connecticut also grew significantly faster, by 3.3% and 2.5%, respectively.
There are a number of factors which could contribute to these differences, including varying rates in immigration and birth rates. However, a major factor is the ability of these different parts of the region to expand their housing supply. All had high and rapidly escalating housing prices in the last six years, but the other suburban areas also built substantially more housing relative to population than Long Island. Some areas had more rural land under development than Long Island, such as Orange County in the Hudson Valley and Somerset County in New Jersey. Each of these areas also had cities that were undergoing substantial housing and population growth, such as White Plains in Westchester, Stamford in Connecticut, and even Newark, New Jersey.
| |||
|
Migration
The number of people leaving Long Island continues to grow, while the number of people arriving from other parts of the United States continues to decline. In 2006, there were 25,000 more Long Islanders who left than those who arrived from within the U.S. This continues an increase in net outmigration that has been accelerating every year since 2000.
This change comes from a number of sources. There are still substantial numbers of people moving to Long Island every year from New York City and other parts of the tri-state region, but the number of people moving from New York City has declined by 9% since 2000 while the number of people moving from Long Island to Manhattan, Queens and other parts of the city has increased by 5%. This is consistent with the substantial growth of new housing and population in the five boroughs compared to Nassau and Suffolk.
For those Long Islanders who do not stay in the tri-state area, they are most likely to go to Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and California, and to do so in increasing numbers. The high propensity of Long Islanders to move to sunny and lower tax states like Florida, North Carolina and Georgia indicates that much of this migration is fuelled by the growing number of retirees. These states have long been a destination for retirees, but the opportunity to cash in on the skyrocketing price of their homes has probably contributed to an acceleration of this trend in recent years.
Interestingly, the average incomes of those moving into and out of Long Island are very similar, at about $60,000 - $65,000 per year while the incomes of those who stay on the Island are much higher. This is likely because young adults and retirees are both more likely to move and have lower incomes than individuals in their prime earning years.
| |||
|
Race and Ethnicity
Long Island continues to become more racially and culturally diverse. Since 2005, the percent of the population identifying themselves as Black, Hispanic or Asian each edged up slightly. Since 1990, the White population has declined from 84% to 72%. Hispanics are both the largest and most rapidly growing minority population, having increased from 6% to nearly 13% in the last decade and a half. The Black population has increased modestly, growing from 7% to 9%. Asians have also increased rapidly, growing from 3.5% to 5%. These trends reflect both national and regional trends, both in terms of the general trend toward greater diversity and in the rapid growth of Hispanics and Asians specifically.
Strong immigration is clearly the predominate cause of increasing diversity, both nationally and on Long Island. However, it would be a mistake to assume that any race or ethnic group is overwhelmingly foreign-born or native-born. For example, a majority (54%) of Hispanic Long Islanders was born in the United States, and a significant number of those who are foreign-born are naturalized citizens. While most Blacks are native-born, one out of four were born overseas. Asians are still predominately foreign-born, with 69% born outside of the United States. Even without changes in immigration laws, the native-born share of these groups is likely to increase as children and grandchildren of immigrants become a larger proportion of the total.
| |
|
Age Distribution
An aging population is a national phenomenon, fueled primarily by the aging of the “baby boom” population, but also by the lengthening life spans. These trends are even more pronounced on Long Island. Between 2000 and 2006, the share of the population over age 55 grew by 2.5 percentage points on Long Island, compared to 1.9 points in the U.S. All other age groups declined as a share of the population in both Long Island and the United States. In the U.S., the proportion under 19 declined the most, from 28.6% to 27.6%. While this age group declined only slightly on Long Island, the share of those between the ages of 20 and 34 declined from 18.1% to 16.4%, significantly more than the U.S. decline from 20.9% to 20.3%. From 1990 to 2006, the decline on Long Island is even sharper, falling from 24% to 16.4%.
The decline the young adult population is partly attributable to low birth rates in the 1970s, when most of this cohort was born. However, this does not explain why Long Island declined to a much greater degree than the U.S. Other demographic explanations may be partly responsible. For example, with adults marrying later and later, there may also be a delay in the traditional move from city to suburb as young singles become families looking for a more suburban lifestyle. However, even this explanation cannot be separated from the escalating cost of housing. The barrier to purchasing a home, or even living on ones own, is likely part of the reason for delaying marriage and children. Certainly the size of the difference between Long Island and the nation, coupled with a severe shortage of housing for most people in the early earning years, points to the Island’s housing market as a major impediment to attracting and retaining more young singles and families.